There isn’t now a scenario where the short to medium term health of the UK economy improves. The lead up to a hard Brexit has already done its damage to a fragile British Economy.
Even the softest Brexit (remaining in the customs union) according to the UK Government’s own figures, and backed up by the first macro analysis of Brexit which was carried out by the Scottish Government, confirms a dire situation. And of course we are heading for a much harder Brexit.
Let’s get one thing clear: a hard Brexit will not be hard for everyone. After the 2008 financial crisis which started the wave of “austerity” across Europe, the wealth of the top 1% has been on an upward trajectory ever since. With wage growth pretty much stagnant, it is the earnings from assets (the top 10% own almost half of UK wealth) that set this group apart.
As some do better when most do worse, it is clear that for the last ten years we have not in fact, “all been in this together”
A hard Brexit will not be hard for everyone
Most Economists suggest that the Brexit which is likely to play out will be considerably worse than the crash in 2008. Of course the pain will be felt by some, while others will be shielded by their wealth.
This disparity of pain will be obvious to most UK citizens. They will see inflation rise and wages, at best, remain moribund. Not only will the cost of living rise but the quality of life will deteriorate. Things that seemed easy to do, like trips to Europe and common like eating Iberian Ham, will be truly foreign.
Already sparse shelves will empty quickly. Run down roads will worsen. Teachers will be more stressed. Across the whole of society the fabric that holds us together will strain. And this will all exist in the same world where the stock market stays buoyant, executive bonuses stay high and international companies use the falling pound to buy back shares to increase shareholder payouts.
So how will society function with such obvious levels of disparity and despair? It is simple. We will blame other people and then we will blame ourselves. This is the natural progression of a society irrevocable damaged.
A ‘no deal’ or an exceptionally hard Brexit will lead to a nationwide overdose of Europhobia. The main stream media, with the few exceptions which prove the rule, will be baying for European blood. This kamikaze approach by the Tory Government can only work with the complicit support of the foreign based media owners and their lackeys at the BBC. The song sheet is already being rehearsed.
It will read like a racist playlist:
“We will be in this state because of the unreasonableness of the EU”.
“The Irish, the Irish, our supposed friends have been the worse. Those thick Irish.”
“The Germans have been waiting 70 years to get back at us”
“Isn’t it time to send those Poles back?”
I shudder to think of the racist riffs and bigoted melodies that will be played by The Mail and The Express.
Open veins of the U.K
In those long sought after trade deals we will find new enemies. The reality of international trade will all too quickly play out. When two Nations play this game the larger holds all the cards. The UK will be dwarfed by scores of Countries as it seeks an impossible “level playing field”: in international trade it does not and has not ever existed.
The UK will find the conditions will be like the ones they set for South American countries in the nineteen century when Great Britain blockaded their ports, banned domestic production and flooded their markets with cheap produce then, of course, racketed up the price.
It will be pay back time for Nations across the globe. The “Open Veins of Great Britain” will give the xenophobes new life, especially when former colonies truly rebel, “The Indians, the Indians, our supposed friends have been the worse”
But of course the blaming of others can only last for so long. Soon enough we will run out of headlines and Nations to attack.
It will become harder to blame others, so we will naturally and easily blame ourselves. Like a recalcitrant skelf our anger will sit just under our skin and we will scratch and scratch until we bleed.
A new double album of material will be released by the UK Government and welcomed by their super fans in the Great British Press. We Brits Are A Lazy Bunch will be accompanied by Our Economy Needs Modernising.
The scene has been set with the ever increasing focus on “Productivity” over the last few years. The UK economy is the least productive in the G7 countries (by a big margin) and it has nothing to do with laziness.
So it’s easy to find alternative facts to evidence that this is down to the lazy Brits attitude and application to work rather than the short term nature of investment and the sucking of profits offshore. “If you want things to improve you have to work harder AND longer” will underpin the discussions on the UK’s productivity.
In a worsening economy it’s not a large leap for this to take a much darker turn, “Maybe YOU are working hard, but the person next to you isn’t” With that, the societal descent will be almost complete.
The final piece of the absurd national catharsis will be to blame our institutions. Modernisation will be super changed as a sense of national panic, built by the Government and willingly supported by the media, will take the sacred cows into the slaughter house.
With trade deals will come the opening up of the entire British state. Liam Fox and his bunch of buccaneers will be courting American multi nationals to run every facet of the UK economy. The 1% will see wonderful new investment opportunities and will be in on the ground floor.
The USA is the promised land for these charlatans. They look on the shallowness of the state and go misty eyed. They see the state retreat from every aspect of life and mirror in that a dreamscape for the UK.
In a short few years after a hard Brexit the neoliberal ideal will be realised in Great Britain. Disaster capitalism will rule.
The state will shrink. The common wealth will be in private hands. Taxation will be low.
America will finally have its GREAT 51st state. And most of us will have nothing at all.