Catalan referendum effect on Scotland

Scotland is already fighting its next independence referendum. The warriors this time aren’t the 45% breaking the veneer of fear in pubs, cafes and church halls across Scotland no, they are the millions of Catalans facing off and up to the Spanish Government.

Make no mistake about it, what happens in Barcelona will not stay in Barcelona: if the Spanish establishment successfully shouts down a planned democratic plebiscite in Catalunya, Scotland’s next grass-route uprising may falter before the minutes are drawn up from so many recently swelled SNP meetings.

Within many quarters in Scotland independence is “when” not “if” Coming so close has wetted the appetite for a million and a half. The reneging of promises, the march to war and the continued malaise of Westminster politicians to the plight of everyone below the top tax band has stoked the fire in thousands more – evidenced alone in the current rocketing membership figures for the Scottish National Party. 

The spring in the step is not just at the town and village level SNP meetings. You can detect the swagger right through the whole “yes” camp. It can most clearly be seen in the SNP’s demand (because that’s what people with a swagger do, they demand, they don’t ask) for “near federalism” and “home rule” as they start to engage with the Smith Commission. Their collective confidence galvanised by the 45%! A steely determination born from a feeling that they lost, but in an away from home defeat in the first leg kind of way. Just you wait for the return tie Westminster!

The thing is that the second leg might never come. The warning from Spain must be heeded: wanting a referendum doesn’t always mean you get one. The Edinburgh Agreement might be news in 2014 but chip wrapper in the years to come.

You see the Spanish they know how to deal with the pesky upstart called democracy. In Spain they sidestepped the whole messy affair of a clear and decisive vote on independence in Catalunya by ensuring a kangaroo constitutional court would rule in favour of the State: your referendum is illegal and therefore meaningless. 

What will Spain leave on the menu for Scotland?
What will Spain leave on the menu for Scotland?

This precedent having already been set is at the heart of the concern for those biding their time for the return match in Scotland. I am here in Catalunya and I can see the similarities with the Scottish vote as clear as the blood red stripes on the yellow Catlalan flag. During the consultation with the Smith Commission we must guarantee the future right for Scotland to unilaterally vote on independence. 

The magnitude of this issue is brought home when you consider that the UK doesn’t have a constitution, so it’s down to politicians in Westminster to decide what that constitution allows or doesn’t allow – like for example parts of the country having a mandate on independence.

The Spanish PM Rajoy is sticking to his position that a unilateral vote in Catalunya is illegal because it deprives all Spaniards of their constitutional right to vote on matters that affect the entire nation. The UK has a powerful European precedent that there is no constitutional right for one region alone to alter the fate of the nation. Next time round the 60 million in the UK could decide if Scotland gets independence. How does that sound?

If this seems incredible and incredulous considering the process that led to the Edinburgh Agreement then consider that in years to come the backdrop to another vote may be very, very different.

From the moment of the referendum announcement almost two years ago, Pollsters and the media were predicting a whopping victory for the Union. Just cast your mind back. The UK was deep in recession. Terrorism and the furthering opening up of our boarders led to fear gripping much of the nation (or so we were and are conditioned to believe) There was no palpable demand for separation in Scotland. Everything that would impact the decision of the Scots was on the side of Westminster, from the media to big business. So strong was the position that the Westminster parties didn’t need a half way option: all or nothing Scotland: stay and win or leave and lose.

But just imagine how different things might be in a few years with a prevailing wind for the nationalists. After the 2015 UK election swollen by a score or more seats at Westminster and another Holyrood majority; come 2020 the foundations will be stronger and the ground of independence much more fallow. But all this to no avail as Westminster changes the constitution goal post. In fact it pulls up the goal posts. Grabs the ball, jumps on the bus, and with a final cry it declares “The 2014 result stands. UK 1. Scotland 0.”

But lets come back from 2020 to the 9th of November 2014, which is still the planned date for the Catalan referendum. That’s a month today. It’s a month that will see as many twists and turns as a Barcelona number 10 and more in’s and out’s that a Spanish political sex scandal. Every move pulled apart by millions of Spaniards and Catalans under a still warm sun.

Considering that Catlaunya is the birth place of Gaudí, Miró and Dalí, it is fitting that it is here that the canvas is already being stretched across the easel that is the next Scottish referendum.

Dalí

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